Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 23.146185 25.167758 27.344390 29.872304 32.740151 35.907571 39.691167
2026-02-08 19.858391 22.608691 25.771446 29.717026 34.563720 40.398894 48.074732
2026-02-15 17.524316 20.665400 24.467495 29.492678 36.091916 44.661719 56.985074
2026-02-22 15.788491 19.146192 23.381971 29.255413 37.423707 48.771740 66.507322
2026-03-01 14.492678 17.988096 22.553678 29.151862 38.807071 53.078754 77.240063
2026-03-08 13.439035 17.010200 21.814889 29.012969 40.034918 57.283016 88.811114
2026-03-15 12.909043 16.665959 21.875606 29.978204 43.000485 64.699119 108.019937
2026-03-22 12.104384 15.857184 21.179569 29.695964 43.906778 68.802957 122.299053
2026-03-29 11.472467 15.235297 20.685762 29.646143 45.152502 73.708929 139.925410
2026-04-05 11.002912 14.807010 20.432710 29.933809 46.995674 80.095646 163.472111
2026-04-12 10.483460 14.263486 19.950763 29.776377 47.989669 84.977881 185.491326
2026-04-19 10.010824 13.756532 19.481457 29.581457 48.868426 89.794635 209.754580
2026-04-26 9.595490 13.320369 19.106090 29.537824 50.093116 95.828002 241.810700
2026-05-03 9.188377 12.872632 18.679656 29.360827 51.031847 101.479576 276.789261
2026-05-10 8.806019 12.440949 18.247964 29.129185 51.823414 107.009921 315.957135
2026-05-17 8.454667 12.038209 17.835692 28.890947 52.564594 112.643208 360.965121
2026-05-24 8.154691 11.701244 17.511236 28.786871 53.589689 119.392983 418.695289
2026-05-31 7.872319 11.377399 17.186858 28.649337 54.516512 126.178185 485.691851
2026-06-07 7.779575 11.360218 17.396106 29.597037 58.199102 142.860940 641.421284
2026-06-14 7.509238 11.031207 17.026785 29.319566 58.798324 149.665741 744.071382
2026-06-21 7.289844 10.777588 16.777811 29.270518 59.982186 159.043415 893.129079
2026-06-28 7.129897 10.617251 16.688706 29.553030 62.099407 172.877650 1135.212354
2026-07-05 6.921663 10.363745 16.411137 29.398370 62.999680 182.390760 1371.824139